Thinking the unthinkable? Can Boko Haram attack Igboland?

The Boko Haram insurgency in north Nigeria is principally an intra-regime conflict. Head of regime Jonathan is adamant that this is the case as his January 2012 statement shows (The Vanguard, Lagos, 12 January 2012).[1] The May 2012 international conference on the conflict at Howard University comes to the same conclusion. It is this evident character of the conflict that has led to the US military reticence to intervene more robustly on the ground (as the Jonathanistas fractions have sought all along) since its aerial surveillance over the region was launched, prompted by the insurgent’s reported school children’s abduction operations earlier on in the year.

If the conflict is intra-regime, then it follows that there are Boko Haram sympathisers/supporters/operatives in genocidist military formations elsewhere in Nigeria, and in Nigeria-occupied Igboland. In other words, Boko Haram, presently, has the capability to strike or open up new fronts anywhere else in Nigeria or indeed in Igboland. The reason why these latter attacks haven’t occurred yet is undoubtedly strategic rather than just tactical. These new fronts will be serious business indeed! Those in the genocidist military allied to the Haram are convinced that any Haram attacks in Lagos or Ibadan or Abeokuta or Benin, west Nigeria, for instance, or indeed in Igboland, will have unpredictable responses from local populations that will qualitatively transform this conflict to “unmanageable” levels and consequences unlike prevailing circumstances. This is one of the key considerations why this conflict is still restricted to the north/northcentral regions of Nigeria. Nothing more. 

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[1]“Boko Haram is everywhere in the executive arm of [my] government, in the legislative arm of [my] government and even in the judiciary.  Some are also in the armed forces, the police and other security agencies … Some continue to dip their hands and eat with you and you won’t even know the person who will point a gun at you or plant a bomb behind your house.”

 (John Coltrane & Don Cherry, “Focus on sanity” [personnel: Coltrane, tenor saxophone; Cherry, pocket trumpet; Percy Heath, bass; Ed Blackwell, drums; recorded: Atlantic Studios, New York, US, 28 June/8 July 1960])

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